Bối cảnh thị trường
USDJPY has been in a downtrend on the higher timeframes (D1/W1) as seen from the chart, with recent price action showing some consolidation around the 145.00 level. The pair has been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish momentum. Key levels to watch include previous swing highs for potential resistance and previous swing lows for potential support.
Phân tích chi tiết biểu đồ H4
On the H4 chart, USDJPY is currently trading around 144.844. The price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend. There is a potential resistance level around 147.500 and a support level around 142.500. Volume has been relatively high during the recent sell-offs, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. The most recent candles indicate a slight pullback, but it remains to be seen if this is a temporary retracement or a trend reversal.
Nhận định và Kịch bản
Given the prevailing downtrend, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the bearish momentum. Scenario 1: A break below the 142.500 support level would likely lead to further downside towards 140.00. Scenario 2: If the price fails to break below 142.500 and retraces back to 147.500, it could present a shorting opportunity at resistance. A third scenario would be consolidation between these levels. Waiting for a clear breakout is recommended.
Đề xuất Giao dịch
Entry: 142.4
Stop Loss: 143
Take Profit: 140
Kết luận phân tích
Overall, the analysis suggests a bearish bias for USDJPY. The downtrend is evident on the H4 chart, and the volume confirms selling pressure. The most probable scenario is a continuation of the downtrend, but waiting for a break of the 142.500 support level is recommended for confirmation. The confidence level is medium, as the market could consolidate before making a move.
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